Is the Housing Market Going To Crash? Here’s What Experts Say

 

Is the Housing Market Going To Crash? Here’s What Experts Say

If you’ve seen headlines or social posts calling for a housing crash, it’s easy to wonder if home values are about to take a hit. But here’s the simple truth.

The data doesn’t point to a crash. It points to slow, continued growth.

And sure, it’s going to vary by local area. Some markets will see prices rise more than others. And some may even see small, short-term declines. But the big picture is: home prices are expected to rise nationally, not fall, over the next 5 years.

The Real Story Is in the Expert Forecasts

In the Home Price Expectations Survey (HPES) from Fannie Mae, each quarter over 100 leading housing market experts weigh in on where they project home prices will go from here. And in the report that was just released, the experts agree prices are projected to climb nationally through at least 2029 (see graph below):

Here’s how to read this visual. Each bar in that graph shows an increase, not a loss. It’s just that the anticipated pace of that appreciation varies year-to-year.

And to further drive this home, let’s look at another view of where prices are and where they’re expected to go. In this version, the expert forecasts are broken into 3 categories: the overall average, the most optimistic projections, and the most pessimistic projections (see chart below):

Notice how even the most pessimistic forecasters say we’ll see prices rise by almost 5% over the next few years.

• Overall, prices are expected to rise about 15% from now through the end of 2029.
• The optimists say we’ll beat that and see a roughly 26% increase.
• And even the pessimists anticipate prices will go up by 5% during that period.

What sticks out the most? None of these groups who study the market are forecasting a crash, or even a decline, over the next 5 years.

How This Compares to “Normal” for the Market

Now, focus back on the first graph. The projections call for 2-3.5% price increases in each of the next five years. For context, the average rate of appreciation for the last 25 years was closer to 4-5% annually.

So, while that’s slightly below the historical average, it’s much more sustainable and typical than where the market was in 2020, 2021, and 2022.

Back then, prices rose too much, too fast based on record-low supply and record-high demand. Some places even saw prices climb by 15-20%.

So, while it may feel like prices are stalling compared to those pandemic-era surges, what’s really happening is that the market is finally finding balance again.

Why Prices Aren’t Expected To Crash

A lot of the chatter about home prices today is based on that rapid rise and the old saying that what goes up, must come down. But historically, that’s not really true. Home prices almost always rise.

And the main reason we’re not heading for a repeat of 2008 is simple: supply and demand.

Even though affordability challenges have made it harder for some people to buy over the past few years, there still aren’t enough homes for everyone who wants one. And that ongoing shortage is keeping upward pressure on prices nationally. 

That’s why experts across the board can confidently agree: we’re not headed for a price collapse, but for steady, long-term appreciation.

And just in case it’s the economy that’s got you worried, remember this. Over the past 50 years, there have been plenty of economic events that have impacted the market. And one thing that’s consistently been true throughout time is the housing market always recovers. And we’re coming through that turn right now and going into a recovery.

Bottom Line

If you’ve been waiting to buy or sell because you’re worried about a crash, it’s time to look at the data – not the headlines.

The question isn’t if home prices will rise, it’s by how much.

Let’s connect so you know what’s happening in our local market and what these forecasts mean for your next move.

Planning To Sell in 2026? Start the Prep Now

 

Planning To Sell in 2026? Start the Prep Now

You’ve got big plans for 2026. But what you do this year could be the difference between a smooth sale and a stressful one. If you’re thinking of selling next spring (the busiest season in real estate), the smartest move you can make is to start prepping now. As Realtor.com says:

“If you’re aiming to sell in 2026, now is the time to start preparing, especially if you want to maximize the spring market’s higher buyer activity.” 

Because the reality is, from small repairs to touch-ups and decluttering, the earlier you start, the easier it’ll be when you’re ready to list. And, the better your house will look when it’s time for it to hit the market.

Why Starting Now Matters

Talk to any good agent and they’ll tell you that you can’t afford to skip repairs in today’s market. There are more homes for sale right now than there have been in years. And since buyers have more to choose from, your house is going to need to look its best to stand out and get the attention it deserves.

Now, that doesn’t mean you have to do a full-on renovation. But it does mean you’ll want to tackle some projects before you sell. Your house will sell if it’s prepped right. And you don’t want to be left scrambling in the spring to get the work done.

Because here’s the advantage you have now. If you start this year, you’ll be able to space those upgrades and fixes out however you want to. More time. Less stress. No sense of being rushed or racing the clock.

Whether it’s fixing that leaky faucet, repainting your front door, or finally replacing your roof, you can do it right if you start now. And you have the time to find great contractors without blowing your budget or paying extra for rushed jobs.

Get an Agent’s Advice Early

To figure out what’s worth doing and what’s not in your market, you need to talk to a local agent early. That way you’re not wasting your time or money on something that won’t help your bottom line. As Realtor.com explains:

“Respondents overwhelmingly agree that both buyers and sellers enjoy a smoother, more successful experience when they start early. In fact, a recent survey reveals that, for sellers, bringing a real estate agent into the process sooner can pay off significantly.”

A skilled agent can tell you:

• What buyers in your local area are looking for
• The repairs or updates you need to do before you list
• How to prioritize the projects, if you can’t do them all
• Skilled local contractors who can help you get the work done

And having that information up front is a game changer.

To give you a rough idea of what may come up in that conversation, here are the most common updates agents are recommending today, according to research from the National Association of Realtors (NAR):

Just remember, what’s worth updating really depends on the homes you’re competing with in your market. Some areas don’t have a ton of inventory, so little updates may be all you need to tackle. In other areas, there are far more homes for sale, so you may need to do a bit more to make your house stand out.

Your agent will walk you through what you need to do for your specific house and market. And that’s expertise that’ll really pay off. 

Bottom Line

If your plan is to sell in 2026, it's time to get serious. Taking some time to prep means you’ll hit the market confident, ready, and ahead of other sellers who waited until January to get started.

Want to know which projects are getting the biggest return on their investment in our market? Let’s connect so you can head into next spring with a solid game plan.

Why Didn’t Mortgage Rates Fall More After the Fed Rate Cut?

Why Didn’t Mortgage Rates Fall More After the Fed Rate Cut?: The Federal Reserve’s rate cut doesn’t translate directly to cheaper mortgages. Yet, some buyers may be seeing ripple effects in certain loan options.

Why Experts Say Mortgage Rates Should Ease Over the Next Year

 

Why Experts Say Mortgage Rates Should Ease Over the Next Year

You want mortgage rates to fall – and they've started to. But is it going to last? And how low will they go?

Experts say there’s room for rates to come down even more over the next year. And one of the leading indicators to watch is the 10-year treasury yield. Here's why.

The Link Between Mortgage Rates and the 10-Year Treasury Yield

For over 50 years, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate has closely followed the movement of the 10-year treasury yield, which is a widely watched benchmark for long-term interest rates (see graph below):

When the treasury yield climbs, mortgage rates tend to follow. And when the yield falls, mortgage rates typically come down.

It’s been a predictable pattern for over 50 years. So predictable, that there’s a number experts consider normal for the gap between the two. It’s known as the spread, and it usually averages about 1.76 percentage points, or what you sometimes hear as 176 basis points.

The Spread Is Shrinking

Over the past couple of years, though, that spread has been much wider than normal. Why? Think of the spread as a measure of fear in the market. When there’s lingering uncertainty in the economy, the gap widens beyond its usual norm. That’s one of the reasons why mortgage rates have been unusually high over the past few years.

But here’s a sign for optimism. Even though there’s still some lingering uncertainty related to the economy, that spread is starting to shrink as the path forward is becoming clearer (see graph below):

And that opens the door for mortgage rates to come down even more. As a recent article from Redfin explains:

“A lower mortgage spread equals lower mortgage rates. If the spread continues to decline, mortgage rates could fall more than they already have.”

The 10-Year Treasury Yield Is Expected To Decline

It’s not just the spread, though. The 10-year treasury yield itself is also forecast to come down in the months ahead. So, when you combine a lower yield with a narrowing spread, you have two key forces potentially pushing mortgage rates down going into next year.

This long-term relationship is a big reason why you see experts currently projecting mortgage rates will ease, with a fringe possibility they’ll hit the upper 5s toward the end of next year.

Here's how it works. Take the 10-year treasury yield, which is sitting at about 4.09% at the time this article is being written, and then add the average spread of 1.76%. From there, you’d expect mortgage rates to be around 5.85% (see graph below):

But remember, all of that can change as the economy shifts. And know for certain that there will be ups and downs along the way. 

How these dynamics play out will depend on where the economy, the job market, inflation, and more go from here. But the 2026 outlook is currently expected to be a gradual mortgage rate decline. And as of now, things are starting to move in the right direction.

Bottom Line

Keeping up with all of these shifts can feel overwhelming. That’s why having an experienced agent or lender on your side matters. They’ll do the heavy lifting for you.

If you want real-time updates on mortgage rates, let's connect so you have someone to keep you in the loop and help you plan your next move.

Homebuyers Interest in Energy Efficiency Is Increasing

Homebuyers Interest in Energy Efficiency Is Increasing: Sustainable features, particularly those that reduce costs or offer financial savings, are increasingly influencing home search and remodeling decisions.

Closing Costs Unpacked: State-by-State Breakdowns for Today’s Buyers

 

Closing Costs Unpacked: State-by-State Breakdowns for Today’s Buyers

If you’re planning to buy a home this year, there’s one expense you can’t afford to overlook: closing costs.

Almost every buyer knows they exist, but not that many know exactly what they cover, or how different they can be based on where you're buying. So, let’s break them down.

What Are Closing Costs?

Your closing costs are the additional fees and payments you make when finalizing your home purchase. Every buyer has them. According to Freddie Mac, they typically include things like homeowner insurance and title insurance, as well as various fees for your:

• Loan application
• Credit report
• Loan origination
• Home appraisal
• Home inspection
• Property survey
• Attorney

National vs. Local: Why the Numbers Look So Different

When you search for information about closing costs online, you’ll often see a national range, usually 2% to 5% of the home’s purchase price. While that’s a useful starting point if you’re working on your homebuying budget, it doesn’t tell the whole story. In reality, your closing costs will also vary based on:

• Taxes and fees where you live (like transfer taxes and recording fees)
• Service costs for things like title and attorney work in your local area

While the home price is obviously going to matter, state laws, tax rates, and even the going costs for title and attorney services can change what you expect to pay. That’s why it's important to talk to the pros ahead of time so you know what to budget for. It can put you in control before you even start shopping.

To give you a rough ballpark, here’s a state-by-state look at typical closing costs right now based on those factors for the median-priced home in each state (see map below):

As the map shows, in some states, typical closing costs are just roughly $1-3K. In a few places, they can be closer to $10-15K. That’s a big swing, especially if you’re buying your first home. And that’s why knowing what to expect matters.

If you want a real number to help with your budget, your best bet is to talk to a local agent and a lender. They can run the math for your price range, loan type, and exact location.

And just in case you’re looking at your state’s number and wondering if there’s any way to trim that bill, NerdWallet shares a few strategies that can help:

• Negotiate with the seller. Ask for concessions like a credit toward your closing costs.
• Shop around for homeowner’s insurance. Compare coverage and rates before you commit.
• Check for assistance programs. Some states, professions, and neighborhoods offer help. Your agent and lender can point you to what’s available locally.

Bottom Line

Closing costs are a key part of buying a home, but they can vary more than most people realize. Knowing your numbers (and how to potentially bring them down) can go a long way and help you feel confident about your purchase. 

Let’s look at typical closing costs in our area and get you a personalized estimate, so you can craft your ideal budget.

3 Reasons Affordability Is Showing Signs of Improvement This Fall

 

3 Reasons Affordability Is Showing Signs of Improvement This Fall

For the past couple of years, it’s been tough for a lot of homebuyers to make the numbers work. Home prices shot up. Mortgage rates too. And a number of people hit pause because it just didn’t feel possible. Maybe you were one of them.

But there’s some encouraging news. If you’ve been waiting for a better time to jump back in, affordability may finally be showing signs of improvement this fall.

The latest data from Redfin shows the typical monthly mortgage payment has been coming down, and is now about $290 lower than it was just a few months ago (see graph below):

And here’s why this is happening. The cost of buying a home really comes down to three things:

• Mortgage rates
• Home prices
• Your wages

Right now, all three are finally moving in a better direction for you. While that doesn’t mean it’s suddenly easy to buy at today’s rates and prices, it does mean it’s not as challenging.

1. Mortgage Rates

Mortgage rates have come down compared to earlier this year. In May, they were roughly 7%. And now, they’re closer to 6.3% (see graph below):

That may not sound like a big deal, but it does matter. Even small changes in rates can make a difference in your future monthly payment. Compared to when rates were 7%, if you take out an average $400K mortgage now at 6.3%, it’ll cost about $190 less a month based on just rates alone.

And for some people, that’s been enough to make buying a home possible again. As Joel Kan, VP and Deputy Chief Economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), explained on September 10^th:

“The downward rate movement spurred the strongest week of borrower demand since 2022 . . . Purchase applications increased to the highest level since July and continued to run more than 20 percent ahead of last year’s pace.”

2. Home Prices

After several years of prices rising very rapidly, price growth has finally slowed. As Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist at First American, puts it:

“National home price growth remains positive, but muted — low single digits — and we expect this trend to continue in the second half of the year.”

For buyers, that’s actually a big relief. That moderation makes it easier to plan your budget. And in some markets, prices have even dipped slightly. If you're in one of the markets, you may be able to find something that’s more affordable than you'd expect.

3. Wages

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), wages are up near 4% annually. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at NAR, explains why that number is so important right now:

“Wage growth is now comfortably outpacing home price growth, and buyers have more choices.”

In other words, the typical paycheck is rising faster than home prices right now, which helps make buying a little more affordable. Now, it’s not a big difference, but in a market like this, every bit counts.

What This Means for You

Lower rates, slower price growth, and stronger wages might be enough to make the numbers finally work for you this fall. 

While affordability is still tight, it’s a little easier on your wallet to buy now than it was just few months ago. Remember, data from Redfin shows the typical monthly mortgage payment is already around $290 lower than it was earlier this year.

Bottom Line

Have you been wondering if it’s worth taking another look at buying?

Let’s run the numbers together. We can go over your budget, see what’s changed, and figure out if this fall is the time to turn window-shopping into key-turning.